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Old 29-02-2012, 12:51 PM   #251
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Lightbulb "ECB allotted 530 billion euro to euro zone’s banks"(2012-02-29)







The single currency fell versus the greenback after the European Central Bank the injected a huge amount of three-year cash into the banking system.

The ECB allotted 530 billion euro in 3-year contracts at 1% interest. The first long term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December accounted only for 489 billion euro. However, the figure was close to what the market has been expecting, so EUR/USD got limited on the upside.

One may see that euro’s correlation with risky assets has broken as higher-yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars rallied against US dollar. The reason is that increased liquidity may boost carry trades in which investors use lower-yielding currencies buy riskier assets, so that EUR will get under pressure.

On the one hand, money from the ECB will help the region’s banks to meet their financing needs and continue easing tension at the euro zone’s bond market. On the other hand, LRTO can’t resolve the euro zone debt crisis and the excess liquidity could weigh on the single currency in coming months.

Support levels for EUR/USD lie at $1.3400 and $1.3388, while resistance levels are situated at $1.3485, $1.3500 and $1.3547.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...uro-zones-banks
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:46 AM   #252
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Lightbulb "The essentials of Ben Bernanke’s testimony "(2012-03-01)








- The Fed’s Chairman confirmed that the interest rates are likely to stay low at least until the end of 2014 as unemployment level is still high and inflation outlook is subdued.

- Bernanke didn’t mention additional monetary stimulus measures like QE3.

- “Gasoline prices have moved up, primarily reflecting higher global oil prices – a development that is likely to push up inflation temporarily while reducing consumers’ purchasing power.”

- Comments on the situation in euro area: “if Europe has a mild downturn… and if the financial situation remains under control that the effect on the US might not be terribly serious”. At the same time, there is “significant risk” of stress and contagion from “a major financial accident”.

Analysts at Barclays Capital note that US central bank is passively moving away from excessive easing approach that will be a positive factor for US dollar.

According to the data released yesterday, US GDP added 3% in the final 3 month of last year (vs. the consensus forecast of 2.8% growth). Conference Board said that confidence among US consumers climbed to a 12-month maximum in February.

Beige Book, regional business survey, also published yesterday showed that American economy expanded at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, the main driver of the expansion was manufacturing.

Bernanke will continue giving its semiannual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.



Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...ankes-testimony
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:06 AM   #253
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Lightbulb "Comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-01)








Today is the first day of EU economic summit. The meeting of the European leaders will be focused on the ways of reviving the region’s economy postponing the discussion of Europe’s financial-crisis firewall.

Analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that the markets are still concerned about the future of the euro area. The specialists are bearish on EUR/USD expecting the pair to slide to $1.25 by June 30.

The single currency dropped versus the greenback yesterday from nearly 3-month maximums in the $1.3480 area to the levels around $1.3315 after the ECB allotted 530 billion euro of cheap three-year credits to the European banks as investors were “buying on rumors, selling on facts”. Then euro was hit after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t signal another round of quantitative easing.

Support for EUR/USD is currently situated at $1.3293 (100-day MA).



Chart. Daily EUR/USD


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...comments-eurusd
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:13 AM   #254
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Lightbulb "Commerzbank is bearish on EUR/USD"(2012-03-01)








Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair EUR/USD may have reversed downwards.

The specialists claim that support for EUR/USD is situated at $1.3318 (February 1 maximum), $1.3293 (February 21 maximum), $1.3199 (late December maximum), $1.3126 (the uptrend channel support) and $1.3066 (55-day MA).

According to the bank, resistance lies at $1.3389 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.3436 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and $1.3487 (February maximum).

Commerzbank says that the outlook for euro will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $1.3487. If the European currency overcomes this level, it will get chance to climb to $1.3550 (December maximum) and $1.3628 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from October to January).



Chart. Daily EUR/USD


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...-bearish-eurusd
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:33 AM   #255
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Lightbulb "SocGen: China may lower GDP target "(2012-03-01)








The National People's Congress will convene in China on March 5 and last for a week discussing the Government Work Report which will reveal the nation’s targets for growth and inflation, detail the fiscal budget and the priorities for reforms in 2012.

Analysts at Societe Generale believe that the general direction of Chinese policymakers will remain the same: the nation will continue being focused on “making progress while maintaining stability”. In their view, China will reiterate “prudent monetary policy” and “proactive fiscal policy”.

According to the bank, China will likely diminish GDP target to 7.5% indicating increasing commitment to structural reforms and less appetite for aggressive investment stimulus.



Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...ower-gdp-target
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:42 AM   #256
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Lightbulb "Rabobank: comments on EUR, AUD, CAD "(2012-03-01)








Analysts at Rabobank believe that the single currency will fall to $1.25 versus the greenback by the middle of May and then return to growth targeting $1.40 in the longer-term as the specialists believe that US dollar will be weakened by the Fed’s policies and economic growth slowdown.

The bank is bullish on the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In their view, these commodity and growth-linked currencies are helped by the success of the LTRO which improved investors’ sentiment. The analysts aren’t sure that Aussie and loonie will be able to maintain the gains for the duration of the year, but for now they seem to be supported well enough.




Chart. Daily EUR/USD


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...nts-eur-aud-cad
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Old 01-03-2012, 12:00 PM   #257
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Lightbulb "BofA revised forecasts for euro, pound "(2012-03-01)








Analysts at Bank of America claim that although the single currency declined yesterday versus the greenback after the LTRO results and Bernanke’s testimony, EUR/USD prospects have so far improved.

The specialists expect the market’s risk sentiment to stay elevated as the situation at the European peripheral debt markets as well as the general state of global economy improved.

The bank increased EUR/USD forecast from $1.25 to $1.30 by the end of the second quarter and from $1.30 to $1.33 by the year-end. In addition, the projections for EUR/JPY were revised up from 91 to 105 yen by June 30 and from 99 to 109 yen by the end of December.

Bank of America thinks that Canadian, Australian and New Zealand’s dollars have good chances for appreciation. As for British pound, the analysts are pessimistic and lowered forecast for GBP/USD for the end of 2012 from $1.53 to $1.51.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...asts-euro-pound
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:28 AM   #258
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Lightbulb "Yen will keep declining due to BOJ’s loose policy "(2012-03-02)







The greenback rose versus Japanese yen approaching February 27 maximum at 81.67 yen.

Yen weakened versus the majority of its counterparts as, according to the data released today, the nation’s CPI fell by 0.1% in January (y/y) declining for the fourth month in a row. According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, yen lost 6.9% during the past 3 months versus other developed-market currencies.

Last month the Bank of Japan set inflation target at 1%, so the market expects that it will keep easing monetary policy in order to meet this goal. The central bank will meet on March 12.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased forecast for USD/JPY for the first quarter from 75 to 80 yen citing “more aggressive dovish” approach of the BOJ.

Strategists at UBS don’t agree with the widespread idea that yen may strengthen towards the Japanese fiscal year-end at March 31. The specialists think that Japanese investors won’t need to repatriate their profits as domestic financial sector looks quite healthy. In addition, Japanese investment flows were net buyers of foreign assets in the first quarter since 2007, and that trend seems unchanged. According to UBS, USD/JPY will rise to 85 7yen in 3 months. Among the reasons why to be negative on yen the bank names high likelihood of further monetary easing in Japan, the widening of the gap between the US and Japanese benchmark bonds and the increasing oil prices.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY


Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...js-loose-policy
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:47 AM   #259
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Lightbulb "Citi: comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-02)







Analysts at Citi believe that traders will sell the single currency on any rallies versus the greenback unless we see a sustained improvement in euro zone’s fundamentals. The specialists say that EUR/USD may face resistance at $1.3500 marking the level where selloffs are likely to start.

In their view, the ECB’s LTRO made euro often used as a funding currency. At the same time, Citi points out that on the downside, EUR’s decline will be contained as oil exporters convert their dollar revenues into euro and the fact that investors are extremely short on euro. As a result, some short-term short-covering advances may happen. So, Citi expects the pair to trade sideways for some time.



График. Daily EUR/USD



Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...comments-eurusd
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Old 02-03-2012, 12:02 PM   #260
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Lightbulb "RBC: technical levels for USD/JPY"(2012-03-02)








Analysts at RBC Capital Markets claim that if the greenback manages to close today above 81.47 yen, its chances for sustained growth will significantly increase.

The specialists think that resistance for USD/JPY lies at 82.21 and 83.09 yen.

On the downside, if US currency closes the day below 80.02, its rate will decline to support at 79.31 and 78.23 yen.




Chart. Daily USD/JPY



Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-0...l-levels-usdjpy
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