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Old 15-05-2013, 12:24 PM   #1511
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AUD/USD extended losses




Australian dollar extends losses for 8 days in a row: today AUD/USD tested a fresh yearly low of $0.9850. Downside slowed after the pair met the 200-week SMA at $0.9870. The picture remains bearish: for now the upside is capped at the parity level. A break below the today’s low would be a new selling signal with a target of $0.9800.

As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair is oversold. Some consolidation may be needed before a decisive break below the 200-week SMA. Commerzbank analysts warn of corrective rebounds, but expect the $1.0000/15 level to offer a good resistance.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD










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Old 16-05-2013, 10:30 AM   #1512
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May 16: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading in the negative territory below $1.2900 before a CPI release may show inflation in the euro zone was the slowest in three years, what would confirm the expectations of the ECB rate cut. Yesterday the single currency renewed a 6-week low as euro zone’s GDP release confirmed the economy stays in recession for sixth quarters.

USD/JPY is consolidating above 102.00. Yen strengthened a bit after Japanese preliminary Q2 GDP expanded by 0.9% (forecast: 0.7%; prev.: 0.0%).

AUD/USD is trading below $0.9900, close to 11-month low after signs of slowdown in the global economy weighed on commodity prices dimming the outlook for Australian exports.

NZD/USD reached $0.8270, but is now trading around $0.8245. New Zealand’s budget didn’t bring any surprises. According to Moody’s, the nation’s ‘budget trajectory’ is supportive of AAA rating.

GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.5230 following the yesterday’s dip to $1.5170. USD/CAD hovers around the 1.0200 mark. Loonie recovered a bit on the weak US data, released yesterday. USD/CHF spiked up to 0.9747 yesterday and is currently trading around 0.9660.















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Old 16-05-2013, 10:39 AM   #1513
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USD/JPY: bulls taking profit below 103.00



Let’s have a brief look at USD/JPY. Rally slowed following the yesterday’s strong Japanese preliminary GDP and the downbeat US data. The pair is now trading a bit below the yesterday’s high at 102.75, but bulls keep strengthening.

Most economists expect USD/JPY growth to continue in the near term. Analysts at BTMU say the pair is taking a breather after its recent sharp rise. According to analysts at Mizuho Securities, the current profit-taking in USD/JPY is also caused by the slide in the Nikkei stock average, which fell 1.1% to below the 15,000 line breached Wednesday. Analysts say eyes are now on further US releases: today watch the April CPI and housing starts, as well as weekly jobless claims later in the day.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY











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Old 17-05-2013, 10:48 AM   #1514
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May 17: Asian session


US dollar was near a 10-month high versus a basket of currencies after John Williams, San Francisco FRB president said the central bank may begin to taper its asset buying this summer.

USD/JPY keeps consolidating around 102.30. Japan’s core machinery orders added 14.2% (forecast: 3.1%). AUD/USD fell to new 11-month low at 0.9736. NZD/USD slid to $0.8087. AUD and NZD were sold heavily from multiple sources today.

EUR/USD is trading in the negative territory around $1.2865. Market sentiment remains bearish but the pair still holds slightly above the recent lows at $1.2840, supported by the downbeat US figures released this week. Today there are no market-moving events on the euro zone’s agenda.

GBP/USD returned to $1.5250 after the yesterday’s rebound above $1.5300. USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0220.















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Old 17-05-2013, 10:56 AM   #1515
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4 reasons for USD/CHF to reach parity (UBS)



According to UBS strategists, USD/CHF is doomed to reach the parity level over the coming weeks. The reasons are as follows:
  1. First, demand for safe haven assets is waning as central banks keep loosening monetary policy to revive economic growth;
  2. Last year’s ECB commitment to buy government bonds through Outright Monetary Transactions has cut the risk of the region’s bankruptcy;
  3. SNB remains committed to capping the franc at 1.20 against the euro and warns it is ready to take further measures. In contrast, the Fed may become the first major central bank to start exiting unconventional monetary policy;
  4. Franc suffers from the fears about Germany’s recovery stalling this year.











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Old 22-05-2013, 08:58 AM   #1516
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May 22: Asian session

USD weakened yesterday after dovish comments from the FOMC’s Bullard and Dudley. The markets are now waiting for Ben Bernanke’s speech and the FOMC minutes at 14:00 and 18:00 GMT respectively.

EUR/USD extended recovery and tested $1.2940 on Wednesday. Yesterday the pair closed above the $1.2900 mark. The European leaders are gathering in Brussels today to discuss taxation policies with a particular focus on how to improve the efficiency of tax collection.

USD/JPY is trading at 102.50. The Bank of Japan affirmed a plan to double the monetary base over 2 years at today’s meeting. The central bank will expand the supply of money in the economy by 60 trillion yen ($585 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year, as pledged in April. Japan’s exports missed estimates in April and the trade deficit increased, data today showed.

AUD/USD is once again trading below $0.9800. Westpac Consumer confidence in Australia came in at the worst rate over a year this May dropping by 7% on the monthly basis. NZD/USD slid below $0.8150 after spiking to $0.8210 yesterday.

GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.5150 after having dipped to $1.5110 yesterday. Watch the MPC meeting minutes later in the day. USD/CAD is trading at 1.0270 after having jumped to 1.0320 on Tuesday on bets the Fed could trim QE.















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Old 23-05-2013, 10:22 AM   #1517
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May 23: Asian session


US dollar strengthened as home sales rose and before US data which are released today forecast to show jobless claims decreased. In addition, the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday the central bank may taper monthly bond purchases if it’s confident of sustained gains in the economy.

EUR/USD touched $1.3000 on Bernanke’s comments yesterday, but reversed from there and is trading around $1.2850 as of writing. The ECB President Draghi will deliver a speech later on Thursday.

USD/JPY is back at 102.50 after touching 103.73 yesterday. AUD/USD hit fresh 11-month low at $0.9616 as a private report showed China’s manufacturing is contracting for the first time in 7 months (HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI came at 49.6 vs. 50.5 expected). NZD/USD fell to $0.8018

GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5050 after the yesterday’s drop. The yesterday’s weak UK figures increased pressure on the sterling. USD/CHF is at 0.9770 after reaching 0.9839 yesterday. USD/CAD jumped by more than 100 pips yesterday and closed aе 1.0360. Today the pair is trading at a fresh yearly high at 1.0370.














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Old 23-05-2013, 10:36 AM   #1518
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AUD/USD dipped below $0.9600



Aussie dollar extends the downside, driven down by the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI (prelim. May estimate: 49.6, forecast: 50.5). On Thursday AUD/USD renewed an 11-week low at $0.9595, but then quickly recovered back to $0.9680.

Despite the fact that yesterday Ben Bernanke said it was too early to taper QE, he actually didn’t deny that US is on the way to the “exit”, so the greenback’s prospects are not so bad. Falling commodity prices are increasing the pressure on the Aussie.

Trader sentiment towards the Aussie remains bearish despite the strongly oversold market conditions. Next support is seen at $0.9570 (2012 low). We would expect a bullish correction to start from here, but buying the Aussie remains a risky trade. We will be prepared to sell the pair on rallies from $0.9840 as the AUD/USD’s drop seems to be structural. Commerzbank’s medium-term target lies at $0.9400/9380.




Chart. Daily USD/JPY











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Old 24-05-2013, 08:29 AM   #1519
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May 24: Asian session

USD is feeling strong ahead of US data forecast to show orders for durable goods rose in April, diminishing the need for monetary stimulus.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.2930 area after it reached $1.2956 yesterday. Euro’s supported as German data due at 08:00 GMT may show that business confidence bottomed out after a 2-month decline. In addition, German GDP will be published at 06:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trying to hold around $1.5100 after it recovered from $1.5013 hit yesterday.

USD/JPY slid to 101.25. Japanese stocks turned negative on Friday after falling by 7.3% yesterday (the largest 1-day drop in 2 years). The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank had no specific targets for stock prices and the level of the yen and will not comment on day-to-day moves.

Commodity currencies were off lows, but their outlook remained shaky given worries about Chinese growth. Aussie and kiwi are trading on the downside: AUD/USD is below 0.9700, NZD/USD is around $0.8100. AUD and NZD were lower against the yen as stock declines worldwide spurred investors to sell higher-yielding assets. New Zealand’s trade surplus came below the forecast (157M vs. 495M expected). USD/CAD is trading above 1.0300 after it has almost reached 1.0400.














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