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===+++*** Arbitrage Betting Part 1 ***+++===
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17-06-2009, 04:02 PM
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#1 |
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Geriatric Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Darwen, Lancashire, England
Posts: 17,840
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===+++*** Arbitrage Betting Part 1 ***+++===
Arbitrage Betting is a win – win way of betting where two individuals or teams go head to head where the result MUST be that one of them wins. If a draw is a possibility it complicates things so for the sake of this exercise I am only considering matches where a draw is not possible or extremely unlikely.
It is possible for a limited overs match like Twenty20 cricket to end in a tie but it is remote in the extreme. So limited overs cricket, tennis and the like are the best bets. So how does this minor miracle work? After all there is not supposed to such a thing as a free lunch and there is supposed to be “if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is”. And Arbitrage Betting certainly sounds too good to be true. Arbitrage Betting takes advantage of the fact that different bookmakers in different parts of the world will lay different odds on the same event and sometimes they are different enough to enable an Arbitrage Bet to cover all the possible outcomes and come out with a profit. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting explains how it works. OK! Is that clear now? No? Parts of it baffled me too. However what it boils down to is this: Bookmaker A lays odds of 1.25 for player 1 to win and 3.9 for player 2 to win. Bookmaker B lays odds of 1.43 for player 1 to win and 2.85 for player 2 to win. You bet on player 1 with Bookmaker B with odds of 1.43. You bet on player 2 with Bookmaker A with odds of 3.9. Your bet is $100 between them. But how much on each? That’s the tricky bit. OK! Pay attention now. I shall this say this only once. Add the odds together. 1.43 + 3.9 = 5.33 Divide your total stake of $100 by 5.33. 100/5.33 = 18.7617260 Now multiply 18.76 with the two odds separately. 18.76 x 1.43 = 26.8268 rounded up to $26.83 18.76 x 3.9 = 73.164 rounded down to $73.16 ($73.17) If you add $26.83 to $73.16 you get $99.99 so add the missing cent to the second bet. You bet $73.17 on player 1 with Bookmaker B with odds of 1.43. If it wins you get $104.63 You bet $26.83 on player 2 with Bookmaker A with odds of 3.90. If it wins you get $104.63 So whatever the outcome you win $104.63 and you have a clear profit of $4.63. If you bet on the other pair of odds (1.25 and 2.85 with $69.51 and $30.49) you only win $86.89 so you lose $13.11. That may not seem like much but if you could do that just once a day your earnings would be $138.90 every 30 days. That is nearly $1,700 in a year, absolutely guaranteed with NO RISK OF LOSING. What’s that about “if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is”? Well Arbitrage Betting is the exception that proves the rule. All that is useless unless you can find two bookmakers with odds that are sufficiently different to make it work. How large a difference makes Arbitrage Betting work? I haven’t figured that out yet but I’m working on it. |
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17-06-2009, 07:47 PM
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#2 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 174
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Quote:
Simple answer is to pay for the information....The better sites will charge for daily sports arbs pics....You could expect to pay around 75+GBP per month or more for the better ones....(I don't have pound symbol on my keyboard).... There are some sites that publish free sports arb pics but they will will only give you for free the ones that will make you 1-2%..... Sports arbitrage betting sounds simple enough to profit from but it takes a large bankroll in order to actually profit from it.... To make any real money you'd need to bet at least $500-1000 per bet.... You'd need to have an account with many bookmakers since you never know which one will offer best opportunity on the day.... Won't take long till you have 10-20K sitting in betting accounts.... The hidden profit is of course in the "first deposit bonus" you get from most bookmakers...This can really add up fast.... Sports arbitrage betting DOES work and it is legal....But it's definitely not for the $2 punter.... |
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18-06-2009, 09:05 AM
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#3 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Arteixo, Spain
Posts: 4,347
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Quote:
Great explanation Jim !! Numerical example makes clear the procedure to follow. That is the reason because your trust in surebest4all HYIP is high. On the other hand, I think that a huge capital/principal is needed for this system to be profitable and applicable. This makes sense to build a HYIP for having such principal |
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20-06-2009, 03:40 AM
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#4 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 22
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The maximum you can find very often is 2.5 % or 3%
 And also don´t forget to remove 5% in your betfair and other bet exchangers winings at all bets... This is only good for those who don´t worry to stake 1k or more in one single bet  I´ve tried this method with only 150$ and got only few bucks in a week  |
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20-06-2009, 03:54 AM
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#5 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 174
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Quote:
3% is good return on a guaranteed win with no risk of being scammed.... Sports betting is like playing a hyip except that so long you use a licensed bookmaker the admin will never run with your money.... In hyip you can get 20% or more but takes many days and carries risk of admin running....Do the math...Many paying hyips pay less than 3% per day.. With sports arb you can get 3% in few hours with no risk  |
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20-06-2009, 04:44 AM
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#6 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Arteixo, Spain
Posts: 4,347
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Quote:
I really agree that 3% per day is a good profit. HYIPs that are low/medium risk do not give this daily profit, and there is even a risk investing in this projects. |
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21-06-2009, 05:40 PM
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#7 |
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Senior Investor
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,573
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great explanation jambutty... this kind of making money is new to me and i found it very interesting. Thats why maths are the best!
__________________
Free Sports picks and you can win Prizes http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/?tx179798 |
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24-06-2009, 04:26 AM
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#8 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 22
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Quote:
3% is still very low! I´ve high fees in betexchanges like betfair(about 5% of your winnings!) Also moneybookers takes too high fees to withdraw my funds And with this method I got also 2 moneybookers accounts blocked with 200€ inside  Will have lot of troubles to unlock.. NO RISK OF LOSING It´s a joke when you choose moneybookers as your default PP to your sportbooks transactions |
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24-06-2009, 05:18 AM
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#9 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 174
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Quote:
This is NOT true....Go and read again and you will see that you have NEVER paid 5% of your winnings... You score betfair points each time you win....When your bet loses you also lose points....Points are calculated based on the size of your bet and the market you bet in... In most cases for the regular punter your points at the end of the month will be less than 999 points so you would pay 0% fees.... To pay 5% like you saying you would need over 4000 points....This will only happen if you bet thousands of dollars and win more than you lose.... So far in the past 3 months I only have a total of 56 points so I pay 0% fees.... To check your points.... Log in...click on "my account"(top left corner) then scroll down and click on "betfair points statements".... There you will see your points.... As for moneybooker fees....That is not betfairs fault or doing.... Personally I deposit only with Visa DEBIT card and there are NO FEES for such deposits.... In fact Betfair charge NO FEES for ANY deposit you make.... |
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24-06-2009, 05:31 AM
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#10 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 22
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Quote:
Not true at all: Note: You will be charged a fee of 1.5% of your deposit amount for the use of PayPal.  And you´ll charged with 5% comission in ALL your winnings: Just 1 example: 2009-06-06 21:42 81XXXXXXX 2009-06-06 05:49 Fixtures 06 June Albania v Portugal / Match Odds Comm Charged 5.13% On Net winnings of EUR3.9 - - - (0.20) In the bet about paid 0.2€ comission to betfair More about commission charges: d) Commission, Market Base Rate, Discount Rate, Betfair Points, Betfair Points Statement and Betfair Holidays Betfair charges a Commission on your net winnings on a market. If you have a net loss on a market you do not pay commission. Commission is calculated by multiplying your net winnings by the Market Base Rate, as shown on the Rules tab. From this we will apply a discount. The more you bet with us the greater the discount you will receive. The size of this discount, or your Discount Rate, is determined by the number of Betfair Points you have accrued on your account. Betfair Points are earned in proportion to your betting activity - the more you bet, the more points you accrue, the greater your Discount Rate. Please note that your discount rate will be capped at 20% unless you have completed Betfair's Know Your Customer check requirements. You earn Betfair Points every time you bet on a market. You will earn 1 point for every 10 pence of commission paid (if you have net winnings) or implied commission (if you have a net loss). Betfair Points are awarded equally whether you win or lose. Example: You have net winnings in a market of £400. The Market Base Rate is 5%. Your current Discount Rate is 40%. Therefore the commission you pay is £12 (£400 x 5% x (1-40%)). You earn 120 Betfair Points. For the purpose of calculating Betfair Points your commission or implied commission on a market is rebased to British Pounds at the time of settlement. Your Discount Rate is calculated from your current Betfair Points every week. This occurs at midnight (GMT) every Sunday using the table below: Betfair Points Discount Rate From To 0 999 0% 1,000 2,499 2% 2,500 3,999 4% 4,000 5,499 6% 5,500 6,999 8% 7,000 8,999 10% 9,000 10,999 12% 11,000 12,999 14% 13,000 14,999 16% 15,000 16,999 18% 17,000 18,999 20% 19,000 20,999 22% 21,000 22,999 24% 23,000 25,999 26% 26,000 28,999 28% 29,000 31,999 30% 32,000 35,999 32% 36,000 39,999 34% 40,000 43,999 36% 44,000 48,999 38% 49,000 54,999 40% 55,000 60,999 42% 61,000 66,999 44% 67,000 72,999 46% 73,000 79,999 48% 80,000 87,999 50% 88,000 95,999 52% 96,000 107,999 54% 108,000 125,999 56% 126,000 149,999 58% 150,000 - 60% |
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