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FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
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04-11-2011, 10:39 AM
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#11 |
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"UBS: technical levels for the major pairs"(2011-11-04)
 EUR/USD: the major support is found at $1.3567. If the single currency breaks below this level it will fall to $1.3406. Resistance is situated at $1.3871 and then at $1.4003. GBP/USD: resistance lies at $1.6097. If the pair overcomes this level it will be poised up to $1.6167. Support is at $1.5825. USD/JPY: resistance is seen at 78.42 and 78.98 yen and support – at 77.43 and 76.94 yen. USD/CHF: support is situated at 0.8718 and 0.8568 (October 27 minimum). Resistance is found at 0.8960.  Chart. Daily EUR/USD  Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9020 |
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04-11-2011, 11:18 AM
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#12 |
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"NAB: market awaits NFP data"(2011-11-04)
The market’s looking forward to get another confirmation of the coming QE3: many traders expect that US jobs growth slowed in October, while the unemployment rate remained high at 9.1%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project Non-Farm Payrolls to increase last month by 95K after adding 103K in September. Analysts at National Australia Bank claim that even if the NFP reading beats economists’ forecasts but the unemployment rate stays unchanged, traders will see this as a reason for additional monetary stimulus and this will weight on the greenback. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ point out that for unemployment to decline by half a percentage point over a year US employers have to hire about 150K workers a month. According to the labor statistics, by the beginning of October American economy had recovered about 2.09 million of the 8.75 million jobs lost as a result of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009. The NFP figures and the jobless rate are released today at 12:30 GMT. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9024 |
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04-11-2011, 11:49 AM
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#13 |
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"RBS: sell euro versus Canadian dollar"(2011-11-04)
Currency strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland see the trading opportunity on the current European mess. The specialists note that the euro zone’s economic outlook is very dim, while the prospects of Canadian economy seem to be much more favorable. According to RBS, it would be beneficial to sell the single currency versus Canadian dollar in the longer term. The analysts underline that trading EUR/CAD is a better idea then EUR/USD as the latter is strongly correlated with the S&P500 index that tends to jump on positive news from Europe, so this type of trade doesn’t suit here. As a result, the bank’s recommendation is to open shorts on EUR/CAD in the $1.3925 area stopping above $1.4380 and targeting the levels just below $1.2800.  Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9028 |
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07-11-2011, 03:56 PM
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#14 |
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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-11-07)
British currency still remains within Ichimoku Cloud: a week earlier the bulls had brought prices to the upper border of Kumo – Senkou Span A (4) – from which sterling has recoiled and reversed down. It’s necessary to note that as the Turning line is directed down it’s possible to expect pound’s decline to continue (2). In addition, the bears seem to gain strength: bearish Cloud is widening. The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) as well as Senkou Span B will act as support for pound.  Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the bulls have managed to make good advance in the second half of October as they have found the narrow place in the Ichimoku Cloud and pushed the pair’s rate above it. At the moment pound is fluctuation around support provided by the Turning line (1). The next support for the British currency will be Senkou Span B (3). At the same time, sterling’s appreciation may be only a correction: in the $1.6335 area the pair met resistance line connecting September and October maximums. Although the Ichimoku Cloud has switched to the rising mode (4), it is still too tiny to speak about bulls’ strength.  Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9034 |
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07-11-2011, 04:34 PM
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#15 |
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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-11-07)
Weekly USD/JPY The third intervention conducted this year in Japan lifted the pair USD/JPY from the record minimum at 75.56 yen hit on October 31 to the levels above the Turning line, slightly higher than 78 yen. At the same time, Japan’s move didn’t much change the outlook at the weekly Ichimoku chart: the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5), the descending Cloud maintains its width together with Kijun-sen acting as resistance for the prices. The Channel between Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen has narrowed. This week the greenback is likely to remain within it. Despite the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities to curb the national currency investors’ demand for yen as a refuge is still high.  Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY After the intervention US dollar has been holding in the 78 yen area supported by Senkou Span B (2). The market is in the state of uncertainty: the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have merged in one moving horizontally (1). The same happened with the borders of the Cloud which has turned into a straight line (3). Neither bulls, nor bears have courage to act. The pair is likely to consolidate at the current levels.  Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9035 |
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08-11-2011, 12:20 PM
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#16 |
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"Standard Chartered, BarCap: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-11-08)
Swiss central bank Vice President Thomas Jordan claimed that Switzerland’s monetary authorities are closely monitoring franc’s rate and are ready to act if it’s necessary. SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is speaking today at 17: 30 (GMT+4). In his last interview on November 6 Hildebrand warned that if franc remains strong the nation will face the risk of deflation or economic contraction. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank underline that Swiss monetary authorities do a lot of verbal interference in the currency market. So far this strategy has proved to be effective enough as the SNB manages to keep the pair EUR/CHF above the floor of 1.20 set on August 9 even though the worsening situation in the euro area urges investors to run to franc as a safe haven. Strategists at Barclays Capital expect demand for Swiss currency to increase this week. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF is on its way down to $1.2245. Specialists at ING don’t think that the SNB will raise floor for the pair as such actions may ruin the credibility of the threshold. On the upside the analysts see euro’s advance limited by $1.2500.  Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9062 |
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08-11-2011, 02:13 PM
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#17 |
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"Deutsche Bank on trading difficulties"(2011-11-08)
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that forex trading on the macroeconomic trends is getting more and more difficult. The specialists point out that Swiss franc – the strongest currency this year – added 6.5% versus the greenback in 2011, while Canadian dollar – the weakest 2011 currency – declined against its US counterpart by 1%. The deviation between franc and loonie is less than 8% and judging by the 30-year average is very small. According to the bank, that means that it has become very difficult to find profitable trades. The economists think that in 2011 the situation won’t improve due to the extremely low short-term interest rates of the developed nations’ central banks. According to Deutsche Bank, the next year many traders will start seeking profits outside of G10 currencies. As for the major currencies the bank favors selling euro versus yen and US dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9064 |
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08-11-2011, 02:49 PM
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#18 |
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"BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs"(2011-11-08)
BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs
 Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9068 |
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09-11-2011, 10:29 AM
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#19 |
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"Italy: Berlusconi agreed to step down"(2011-11-09)
Yesterday Italian controversial Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi didn’t manage to obtain the absolute majority on the routine budget bill as he was supported only by 308 lawmakers out of 630. As a result, Berlusconi, who seems to have lost political confidence, pledged to leave his post as soon as the nation’s parliament approves austerity measures promised to the EU. The whole matter should be over in the next few weeks. The market’s reaction, as expected, was optimistic: investors hope that new authorities will be able to find way out of the crisis. Never the less, analysts at RBS warn traders that the relief won’t last long. Italy now faces technocratic government – the government with limited term meant to carry out specific reforms. It’s likely to be chosen by political leaders and appointed by President Giorgio Napolitano and charged with implementing debt-reduction agenda until April 2013 when the elections are to be held. Conducting new elections on the spot as suggests Berlusconi would delay reforms. Most of the opposition parties have signaled they would support a broader coalition or a technical government. However, one should realize that the country’s 1.9 trillion euro-debt is very difficult to control, so there are no guarantees that new authorities will do much better than Berlusconi.  Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9072 |
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09-11-2011, 11:23 AM
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#20 |
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"RBC: sell Swiss franc versus Japanese yen"(2011-11-09)
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will stay in a tight range for some time. Instead, the specialists advise traders to turn to yen and franc as the Swiss National Bank’s and the Bank of Japan’s intervention approaches are different. The SNB is concerned about deflation risk, so it set specific target for franc in order to reverse its advance versus euro and is successfully defending it. The BOJ has also attempted to stop the appreciation of the national currency, but failed to keep yen from strengthening. So, the latter, according to the bank, lacks determination and the use of specific targets of the former. As a result, RBC recommends opening shorts on CHF/JPY in the 87.25 area stopping above 89.30 and targeting 83.00 yen.  Chart. Daily CHF/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9076 |
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