FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

Discussion in 'Forex Advertising' started by internationallove, Oct 26, 2011.

  1. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

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    FBS Daily/Weekly Analysis


    Dear members we will provide you the latest economy reviews. Please, follow our Analytics and market news and you will be informed about Forex actualities. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading. :)

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    Analytical support is one of our strongest advantages. FBS has a large in-house analytical department, gathering top level professionals in market research. Our analysts provide round-the-clock analytical support, with over 120 total market news, comments, opinions, predictions and many more. Our analysts also provide comments for several business broadcasting companies and TV shows.
     
  2. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "RBA lowered the benchmark interest rate"(2011-11-01)

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    The Reserve bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. The majority of the economists now agree that the RBA is unlikely to start the easing cycle.

    Analysts at HSBC claim that as long as Aussie remains strong, the central bank will be less concerned about inflation that will prevent it from decreasing the borrowing costs. In addition RBA’s statement doesn’t contain hints at further rate cuts. According to the specialists, RBA’s approach has switched to neutral.

    Strategists at ANZ aren’t sure about the central bank’s neutral position but say that they don’t expect another easing move in December naming February as the potential time when the next cut arrives. Analysts at St. George Bank look forward to only one more rate reduction in March.

    Australian dollar fell versus its US counterpart from today’s maximum at $1.0566 to the levels below $1.0450.

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    Chart. Daily AUD/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8974
     
  3. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "UBS increased forecasts for EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD"(2011-11-01)





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    Currency strategists at UBS increased their 1-month forecast for the single currency versus the greenback from $1.30 to $1.40 and 3-month one from $1.20 to $1.35. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will be trading between $1.35 and $1.45 during the next few weeks.

    The predictions for GBP/USD were also lifted up from $1.51 and $1.40 to $1.60 and $1.55.

    In addition, the specialists raised their 1- and 3-month estimates of future AUD/USD rate from 0.95 and 0.90 to 1.04 and 0.97 and of NZD/USD from 0.76 and 0.72 to 0.80 and 0.74 respectively.

    As the reason for the revisions the analysts cited the improvement of the market’s sentiment after the European authorities took actions to safe Greece from default.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8976
     
  4. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Westpac: recommendations ahead of NFP"(2011-11-01)

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    On Friday comes an important release – US Non-Farm Payrolls for October.

    Currency strategists at Westpac Institutional Bank think that if the number of jobs increased last month by more than 95K (the consensus forecast is of 98K increase after September growth of 103K), it would be wise to buy USD/JPY. If the reading is below 60K, the specialists recommend buying USD/CAD pointing out that Canadian economy which has close ties to the one of its neighbor will also suffer.

    Westpac analysts regard the first scenario as the most likely. That’s why they advise investors to open dollar longs at 77.00 yen stopping at 76.00 yen and targeting 79.50 yen.

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    Chart. Daily USD/JPY


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8987
     
  5. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Citigroup: Japan’s intervention is unlikely to be a success"(2011-11-01)

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    On Monday Japan intervened at the currency market for the third time this year in order to weaken its national currency. There’s no official information about of the amount spent, but the market’s speculating that Japan may have sold about 7 trillion yen ($92.31 billion) breaking the previous record of a 1-day intervention of 4.5 trillion yen (August 4, 2011).

    Never the less, many analysts are skeptical doubting that the move will be able to succeed in preventing yen from appreciation and easing pressure on Japanese exports. The economists cite the results on the previous unilateral attempts of Japan’s government when after a jump the pair USD/JPY slid down again. Citigroup specialists believe that this time everything will be the same. Economists at BNP Paribas say that the intervention policy is losing effectiveness.

    Among the factors which may cause the demand for yen increase one should name the risks connected with the euro area and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may ease its monetary policy. Specialists at Westpac underline that in the current situation investors will crave for safe havens. Another thing that seems likely to undermine the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities is the profit repatriation of Japanese companies which buy yen during this process.

    US dollar bounced yesterday by 5% from the record minimum at 75.56 yen to the maximum at 79.53, but then eased down to the levels around 78 yen.

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    Chart. Daily USD/JPY


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8990
     
  6. internationallove

    internationallove New Member



    "Westpac, HSBC on the outlook for kiwi"(2011-11-02)



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    New Zealand’s dollar weakened this week versus its US counterpart as investors’ risk sentiment was affected by the news about the referendum in Greece.

    Currency strategists at Westpac believe that NZD/USD will keep declining during the next few weeks moving down to the levels in the $0.7000 area. In their view, support for the pair is situated at $0.7910, while resistance stays at $0.8050.

    Analysts at HSBC, however, think that there won’t be any clear trend for kiwi until the FOMC and ECB meetings and US payrolls this week. It’s necessary to note that the specialists don’t expect the Fed to trigger the QE3 as there should be a deflationary environment for that.

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    Chart. Daily NZD/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8994
     
  7. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Agenda for the euro area in November"(2011-11-02)

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    – Wednesday, Nov. 2: French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet with Greek, IMF and EU officials in Cannes. Portuguese T-bill auction. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data.

    – Thursday, Nov. 3: ECB policy meeting. Mario Draghi’s first press conference as ECB President. Spanish and French bond auctions.

    – Thursday, Nov. 3 – Friday, Nov. 4: G-20 leaders meet in Cannes.

    – Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.

    – Monday, Nov. 7: Eurogroup finance ministers meet.

    – Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meet. Greek T-bill auction.

    – Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.

    – Friday, Nov. 11: 2.0 billion euro of Greek T-bills mature.

    – Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.

    – Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.

    – Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.

    – Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.

    – Friday, Nov. 18: 1.3 billion euro of Greek T-bills mature.

    – Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.

    – Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.

    – Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.

    – Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote.


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9001
     
  8. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Bernanke: US economy may need additional stimulus"(2011-11-03)

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    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed yesterday that additional monetary stimulus may be needed to reduce unemployment as US economic outlook seems to be rather pessimistic. Among the options of such stimulus Bernanke named the third round of quantitative easing, extending the period of record-low borrowing costs or estimating the conditions necessary for the rate hike.

    The Chairman admits that the central bank has overestimated the pace of US economic recovery and expects American economic growth to be “frustratingly slow”, while FOMC statement states that even after relatively good figures in the third quarter there are “significant downside risks”. According to Bernanke, these risks include the effects of European fiscal and banking problems.

    The Fed’s GDP growth projections for 2012 were lowered from 3.3-3.7% (June’s estimate) to 2.5-2.9%. The projected unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the next year was raised from the previous forecast of 7.8-8.2% to 8.5-8.7%.

    The Operation Twist or the lengthening of the Fed’s bond portfolio maturity is left in place. US monetary authorities also confirmed the plan to hold the Federal funds rate between 0% and 0.25% at least until the middle of 2013.

    It’s clear now that the Fed’s policy has become more accommodative and the central bank is ready for aggressive actions.

    Despite the increased possibility of QE3 that should have weakened US dollar the greenback strengthened against euro. Analysts at UBS think that this may be explained by the fact that some traders expected the Fed to take even more loose approach. In addition, one should remember that the pair EUR/USD is also weakened by the ongoing crisis in the euro area.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9010
     
  9. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Niesr analyses the odds of the UK recession"(2011-11-03)

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    National Institute for Economic and Social Research estimate the possibility of recession in the UK by 50%. If the European policymakers don’t find the solution of the region’s debt crisis, the odds of British economic contraction will equal to 70%.

    The economists lowered their economic growth forecasts for 2012 from August estimate of 2% to 0.9%. In their view, UK GDP growth will keep stagnating in the first half of the next year as it was this year going through the slowest recovery since the end of the First World War.

    Niesr has also revised down its forecast for the global economic growth from 4.5% to 4% in 2011 and 2012 noting that there are downside risks to this projection from the crisis in Greece.

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    Chart. Daily GBP/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9014
     
  10. internationallove

    internationallove New Member



    "ECB lowered the benchmark rate"(2011-11-03)



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    The European Central Bank decided to cut its benchmark interest rate at President Mario Draghi's first policy meeting in charge by 25 basis points to 1.25% after it had twice increased it – in April and July.

    Such move was unexpected by the majority of the economists as inflation in the euro area showed the reading of 3.0% in October for the second month in a row, while the central bank’s target lies just below 2%.

    According to Dragi, the main reason for the cut is the deterioration of the euro zone’s economic data. The ECB President underlined that growth slowdown will cool inflation perspectives. In his view, at the end of the year the monetary union will face mild recession.

    Currency strategists at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ think that ECB’s decision to ease its monetary policy will increase the pressure on the single currency and the demand for euro will keep declining. In their view, European borrowing costs will be lowered to 1% during the next few months.

    The pair EUR/USD traded today in quite volatile manner: by the middle of the day it reached high at $1.3834 and then returned to the day’s minimum in the $1.3660 area before another bounce to the day’s maximums.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9018
     
  11. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "UBS: technical levels for the major pairs"(2011-11-04)

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    EUR/USD: the major support is found at $1.3567. If the single currency breaks below this level it will fall to $1.3406. Resistance is situated at $1.3871 and then at $1.4003.

    GBP/USD: resistance lies at $1.6097. If the pair overcomes this level it will be poised up to $1.6167. Support is at $1.5825.

    USD/JPY: resistance is seen at 78.42 and 78.98 yen and support – at 77.43 and 76.94 yen.

    USD/CHF: support is situated at 0.8718 and 0.8568 (October 27 minimum). Resistance is found at 0.8960.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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    Chart. Daily USD/JPY


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9020
     
  12. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "NAB: market awaits NFP data"(2011-11-04)

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    The market’s looking forward to get another confirmation of the coming QE3: many traders expect that US jobs growth slowed in October, while the unemployment rate remained high at 9.1%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project Non-Farm Payrolls to increase last month by 95K after adding 103K in September.

    Analysts at National Australia Bank claim that even if the NFP reading beats economists’ forecasts but the unemployment rate stays unchanged, traders will see this as a reason for additional monetary stimulus and this will weight on the greenback.

    Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ point out that for unemployment to decline by half a percentage point over a year US employers have to hire about 150K workers a month. According to the labor statistics, by the beginning of October American economy had recovered about 2.09 million of the 8.75 million jobs lost as a result of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.

    The NFP figures and the jobless rate are released today at 12:30 GMT.


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9024
     
  13. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "RBS: sell euro versus Canadian dollar"(2011-11-04)

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    Currency strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland see the trading opportunity on the current European mess.

    The specialists note that the euro zone’s economic outlook is very dim, while the prospects of Canadian economy seem to be much more favorable. According to RBS, it would be beneficial to sell the single currency versus Canadian dollar in the longer term.

    The analysts underline that trading EUR/CAD is a better idea then EUR/USD as the latter is strongly correlated with the S&P500 index that tends to jump on positive news from Europe, so this type of trade doesn’t suit here.

    As a result, the bank’s recommendation is to open shorts on EUR/CAD in the $1.3925 area stopping above $1.4380 and targeting the levels just below $1.2800.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/CAD



    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9028
     
  14. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-11-07)

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    British currency still remains within Ichimoku Cloud: a week earlier the bulls had brought prices to the upper border of Kumo – Senkou Span A (4) – from which sterling has recoiled and reversed down.

    It’s necessary to note that as the Turning line is directed down it’s possible to expect pound’s decline to continue (2). In addition, the bears seem to gain strength: bearish Cloud is widening.

    The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) as well as Senkou Span B will act as support for pound.

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    Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

    Daily GBP/USD

    On the daily chart the bulls have managed to make good advance in the second half of October as they have found the narrow place in the Ichimoku Cloud and pushed the pair’s rate above it. At the moment pound is fluctuation around support provided by the Turning line (1). The next support for the British currency will be Senkou Span B (3).

    At the same time, sterling’s appreciation may be only a correction: in the $1.6335 area the pair met resistance line connecting September and October maximums.

    Although the Ichimoku Cloud has switched to the rising mode (4), it is still too tiny to speak about bulls’ strength.

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    Chart. Daily GBP/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9034
     
  15. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-11-07)

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    Weekly USD/JPY

    The third intervention conducted this year in Japan lifted the pair USD/JPY from the record minimum at 75.56 yen hit on October 31 to the levels above the Turning line, slightly higher than 78 yen.

    At the same time, Japan’s move didn’t much change the outlook at the weekly Ichimoku chart: the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5), the descending Cloud maintains its width together with Kijun-sen acting as resistance for the prices.

    The Channel between Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen has narrowed. This week the greenback is likely to remain within it.

    Despite the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities to curb the national currency investors’ demand for yen as a refuge is still high.

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    Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

    Daily USD/JPY

    After the intervention US dollar has been holding in the 78 yen area supported by Senkou Span B (2).

    The market is in the state of uncertainty: the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have merged in one moving horizontally (1). The same happened with the borders of the Cloud which has turned into a straight line (3).

    Neither bulls, nor bears have courage to act. The pair is likely to consolidate at the current levels.

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    Chart. Daily USD/JPY


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9035
     
  16. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Standard Chartered, BarCap: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-11-08)

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    Swiss central bank Vice President Thomas Jordan claimed that Switzerland’s monetary authorities are closely monitoring franc’s rate and are ready to act if it’s necessary.

    SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is speaking today at 17: 30 (GMT+4). In his last interview on November 6 Hildebrand warned that if franc remains strong the nation will face the risk of deflation or economic contraction.

    Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank underline that Swiss monetary authorities do a lot of verbal interference in the currency market. So far this strategy has proved to be effective enough as the SNB manages to keep the pair EUR/CHF above the floor of 1.20 set on August 9 even though the worsening situation in the euro area urges investors to run to franc as a safe haven.

    Strategists at Barclays Capital expect demand for Swiss currency to increase this week. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF is on its way down to $1.2245.

    Specialists at ING don’t think that the SNB will raise floor for the pair as such actions may ruin the credibility of the threshold. On the upside the analysts see euro’s advance limited by $1.2500.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/CHF


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9062
     
  17. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Deutsche Bank on trading difficulties"(2011-11-08)

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    Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that forex trading on the macroeconomic trends is getting more and more difficult.

    The specialists point out that Swiss franc – the strongest currency this year – added 6.5% versus the greenback in 2011, while Canadian dollar – the weakest 2011 currency – declined against its US counterpart by 1%. The deviation between franc and loonie is less than 8% and judging by the 30-year average is very small. According to the bank, that means that it has become very difficult to find profitable trades.

    The economists think that in 2011 the situation won’t improve due to the extremely low short-term interest rates of the developed nations’ central banks. According to Deutsche Bank, the next year many traders will start seeking profits outside of G10 currencies. As for the major currencies the bank favors selling euro versus yen and US dollar.

    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9064
     
  18. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

  19. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "Italy: Berlusconi agreed to step down"(2011-11-09)

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    Yesterday Italian controversial Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi didn’t manage to obtain the absolute majority on the routine budget bill as he was supported only by 308 lawmakers out of 630.

    As a result, Berlusconi, who seems to have lost political confidence, pledged to leave his post as soon as the nation’s parliament approves austerity measures promised to the EU. The whole matter should be over in the next few weeks.

    The market’s reaction, as expected, was optimistic: investors hope that new authorities will be able to find way out of the crisis. Never the less, analysts at RBS warn traders that the relief won’t last long.

    Italy now faces technocratic government – the government with limited term meant to carry out specific reforms. It’s likely to be chosen by political leaders and appointed by President Giorgio Napolitano and charged with implementing debt-reduction agenda until April 2013 when the elections are to be held. Conducting new elections on the spot as suggests Berlusconi would delay reforms. Most of the opposition parties have signaled they would support a broader coalition or a technical government.

    However, one should realize that the country’s 1.9 trillion euro-debt is very difficult to control, so there are no guarantees that new authorities will do much better than Berlusconi.

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    Chart. Daily EUR/USD


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9072
     
  20. internationallove

    internationallove New Member

    "RBC: sell Swiss franc versus Japanese yen"(2011-11-09)

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    Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will stay in a tight range for some time.

    Instead, the specialists advise traders to turn to yen and franc as the Swiss National Bank’s and the Bank of Japan’s intervention approaches are different.

    The SNB is concerned about deflation risk, so it set specific target for franc in order to reverse its advance versus euro and is successfully defending it. The BOJ has also attempted to stop the appreciation of the national currency, but failed to keep yen from strengthening. So, the latter, according to the bank, lacks determination and the use of specific targets of the former.

    As a result, RBC recommends opening shorts on CHF/JPY in the 87.25 area stopping above 89.30 and targeting 83.00 yen.

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    Chart. Daily CHF/JPY


    Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9076
     

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